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This electorate might be the one that has shrunk the most owing to the redistribution.
I’m tipping Angus Taylor retains with a swing to him.
Goulburn was removed from Hume in the redistribution. In 2022, an independent candidate from Goulburn scored really well there but less so in SW Sydney. With her absence, Taylor will recover his primary vote.
The removal of Goulburn will help his vote due to the fact that the area it now occupies is Liberal territory. The new seat most people drew was arou d this area and tipped to be a Liberal seat.
The independent is not running apparently. She says the personal abuse that she and her family suffered was too much.
If Labor can figure out how to get back in Fowler and not fall off in Werriwa, then they can’t be ruled out here. At the state level Wollondilly is Ind held and Camden is Labor held, both 2023 gains. Labor would at least have scope to run a real campaign and do internal polling here. We should be able to tell how seriously they’re taking the seat soon.
Angus Taylor is high profile but not necessarily for positive reasons. What does that mean for the suburban growth areas and the the areas newly coming into the division from safe Labor seats?
Likely Lib retain but more interesting than usual due to the redistribution and greater question of how well Labor is doing in outer suburbs
@blue no john labor wont win Fowler Hume and will have problems in werriwa. If Carbone runs in Mcmahon bowen is likely to lose that. Jason Clare could be in trouble in Blaxland and the libs are likly to put on a good show in Parramatta. labors game this election is gonna be purely defenseive they may not have many resources to spare to go on the ttack. Hume will reelect angus taylor this is solid liberal territory
This seat should not be a problem for Angus Taylor this time.But when Labor is popular enough to win Government,he will need to watch out.
The mortgage stress will lead to protest votes against Labor. Camden LGA, where most people in Hume are, is one of the worst for mortgage stress. Mike Freelander had a strong personal vote in Macarthur and the inclusion of Leppington and Oran Park into Hume means that Labor support would drop.
It’s interesting seeing Angus Taylor as a rep for SW Sydney as historically he’s been associated with Goulburn and the Southern Highlands.
Liberal retain with a solid swing. Now that Angus Taylor is fairly well-known, he shouldn’t be in any danger
@nick G the parts removed were draggin down his vote
The boundaries here now are much more sensible. In a very good election Labor could be competitive here.
I understand Mr Taylor could lose in a liberal party preselection further down the track
doubtfuk
John, Mick might have a point in that Labor could win Hume but only under a landslide type environment (2007 style result or better), and that would have to coincide with Angus Taylor’s retirement.
But you are correct that outcome would be unlikely to occur for the foreseeable future, even though the Liberal Party holds none of the 3 overlapping state districts (Camden and Leppington are Labor held, with Wollondilly held by teal independent Judy Hannan).
@yoh an yea but we all know people vote differently at state level then they do at federal because they are voting on different issues.
also im pretty sure leppington is not in HUme and that was a new district with no sitting member both Wollondill and Camden are on small margins won in a year when the Libs were on the way out due to an aging govt and the labor party couldnt even manage a majority. id expect both Wollondilly and Camden to be retaken in 2027 and Leppington maybe an outside chance especially if Albos in got still.
His margin is still over 7% in a year when there was a strong swing against the Liberal party. his margin will likely return to 10%+ this election and even stronger in 2028.
Furthermore i reckon the Liberal opposition in Nsw has a good chance of defeating the first term Minns govt in 2027 as they only need to win effectively the 6 marginals which are traditional liberal seats. If albo is stil in office in 2027 they wlll likely be returned in majority